Future of China, Part I
Witnessing changes over the Arab Spring and current affairs in Syria, I wonder what will be in the future of China.
In 1989, I was a college student in Shanghai. What happened during the student movement in China and what followed in Eastern Europe had many assemblance with the student protest in Tunisia, the transformation in Egypt, the collapse of the Gaddafi government in Libya, and the ongoing civil war in Syria.
It has been a wonder in the past 25 years in China for the unprecedented growth and the dramatic improvement in people’s life. Many wonder how could this happen in an authoritarian state. There have been suggestions that maybe an authoritarian state could be more efficient than a democratic one, maybe the state owned enterprises could be better aligned with long-term strategy than the short-term focus of western multinationals. Look at the chaos in the Middle East today, maybe the authoritarian state is better for today and tomorrow’s China.
I certainly hope tomorrow’s China is not the one governed by a party which does not recognize freedom for individual and democracy for all.
The recent reform in China began in 1978 with farmers wanted ownership of their land and reward based on their work. As a kid in the early 70’s, I remember almost everything was on a quota system due to short of supply. Our family of 6 had a monthly quota for 3 pounds of meat (I later heard it was good for the environment, which is fine, but it also explains why it is so hard to turn a middle aged Chinese into a vegetarian today no matter what the health benefit there is). By the middle 80s, the farmers markets were full of vegetables, chickens (without H5N1 or H1N7) and produces --- this came from the hard work of hundreds of millions of farmers simply making an honest living and a reasonable leader (Deng) who recognized that the government just needed to stay out of the way and gave back farmers their freedom to be owners of their land.
The Made in China status of manufacturer of the world started in regions that countless entrepreneurs took risks of leaving their jobs and put everything they had in new ventures that addressed every opportunity and need in the market --- every success story in Shenzhen, Suzhou, and Dongguan came from millions of migrant workers’ willingness to put in so much to improve their lives and a government willing to let market force to drive growth and development.
Aspiration for freedom and democracy has proven to be fundamental needs for every modern society, and it will be the future in China.
How will China transform from an authoritarian state to a democratic society without falling into the chaos in Syria today?
I want to imagine that in Part II of future of China.
